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Asian Institute of Research, Journal Publication, Journal Academics, Education Journal, Asian Institute
Asian Institute of Research, Journal Publication, Journal Academics, Education Journal, Asian Institute

Economics and Business

Quarterly Reviews

ISSN 2775-9237 (Online)

asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, managemet journal
asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, managemet journal
asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, managemet journal
asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, managemet journal
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Published: 22 November 2024

The Effects of Commodity Prices on Namibia’s Business Cycles

Mabuku M., Kaulihowa T., Chifamba R.

University of Namibia, Namibia University of Science & Technology

asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, management journal

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doi

10.31014/aior.1992.07.04.627

Pages: 145-160

Keywords: GDP, NARDL, Commodity Prices, Copper Prices, Uranium Prices, Business Cycles

Abstract

The study examined the effects of price shocks in the price of mineral commodities (copper and uranium) on Namibia’s business cycles (real GDP) from 1980 – 2018. To estimate the impact of positive and negative changes in commodity prices on business cycles, the study adopted a stepwise least square, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, and Wald tests to determine cointegration and the presence of asymmetric effects. The findings reveal a long-run cointegration among business cycle (real GDP), commodity (copper and uranium) prices, investment, and export shares of GDP. Moreover, the study unveiled that copper and uranium prices have an asymmetric impact on Namibia’s business cycle. Specifically, positive changes (appreciations) for copper and uranium prices significantly impact real GDP more than negative changes (depreciations). Overall, this study supports the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis, which underscores the importance of industrialisation.

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