Economics and Business
Quarterly Reviews
ISSN 2775-9237 (Online)
Published: 18 January 2024
Political Risk Impacts on Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam
Tran Binh Nguyen
University of the West of England, United Kingdom
Download Full-Text Pdf
10.31014/aior.1992.07.01.556
Pages: 14-26
Keywords: Political Risk, Foreign Direct Investment, Vietnam, International Country Risk Guide, Governance Quality, Military Involvement, Economic Stability
Abstract
The research explores the impact of political risk on foreign direct investment in Vietnam. The dataset for political risk employed in this research consists of twelve factors from the International Country Risk Guide, offering a comprehensive assessment of Vietnam's political landscape. The research utilises Principal Component Analysis to consolidate twelve political risk items, examining their influence alongside GDP growth, inflation rate and trade openness. With data spanning from 1994 to 2021, ARIMA models are employed due to non-stationarity issues from secondary data set. The findings indicate that while economic factors contribute to FDI, political risk variables like governance quality, military involvement, and economic stability have profound impacts. The study suggests that enhancing governance and reducing military politics are key to attracting FDI, offering insights for policymakers and investors to navigate Vietnam's investment landscape.
References
Ahmad, S. T., & Rashid, H. (2014). Impact of trade openness, FDI, exchange rate and inflation on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 4(2), 236.
Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1996). Income distribution, political instability, and investment. European economic review, 40(6), 1203-1228.
Alshamsi, K. H., & Azam, M. (2015). The impact of inflation and GDP per capita on foreign direct investment: the case of United Arab Emirates. Investment management and financial innovations, (12, Iss. 3 (contin.)), 132-141.
Asiedu (2006). Foreign Direct Investment to Africa: The Role of Government Policy, Governance and Political Instability.World Economy. Vol. 29 (1), pp. 63-77
Bianco, A. M., Martinez, E. J., Ben, M. G., & Yohai, V. J. (1996). Robust procedures for regression models with ARIMA errors.In COMPSTAT: Proceedings in Computational Statistics 12th Symposium held in Barcelona, Spain, 1996 (pp. 27-38). Physica-Verlag HD.
Buckley, P. J., Devinney, T. M., & Louviere, J. J. (2007). Do managers behave the way theory suggests? A choice-theoretic examination of foreign direct investment location decision-making. Journal of international business studies, 38, 1069-1094.
Burnham, K. P., & Anderson, D. R. (2004).Multimodel inference: understanding AIC and BIC in model selection. Sociological methods & research, 33(2), 261-304.
Busse, Matthias, and Carsten Hefeker (2007).Political Risk, Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment European Journal of Political Economy 23, no. 2: 397–415.
Campos, N. F., & Kinoshita, Y. (2002).Foreign Direct Investment as Technology Transferred: Some Panel Evidence from the Transition Economies. Center for Economic Policy Research. Discussion Paper No. 3417.
Chakrabarti, A. (2001).The determinants of foreign direct investment: Sensitivity analyses of cross-country regressions. KYKLOS, 54, 89–112.
Cheng, H. G., & Phillips, M. R. (2014).Secondary analysis of existing data: opportunities and implementation Shanghai archives of psychiatry, 26(6), 371.
Chowdhury, A., & Mavrotas, G. (2003).Foreign direct investment and growth: what causes what. Department of Economics, Marquette University, USA, World Institute Development Economic Research/United Nations University.
Cung, N. H. (2020).Impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Vietnam. Advances in Management and Applied Economics, 10(2), 1-6.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431
Dinh, T. T. H., Vo, D. H., The Vo, A., & Nguyen, T. C. (2019).Foreign direct investment and economic growth in the short run and long run: Empirical evidence from developing countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(4), 176.
Dolado, J. J., Gonzalo, J., & Mayoral, L. (2002).A fractional Dickey–Fuller test for unit roots. Econometrica, 70(5), 1963-2006.
Dua, P. and Garg, R. (2015), Macroeconomic determinants of foreign direct investment: evidence from India, The Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 49 No. 1, pp. 133-155
Dunteman, G. H. (1989). Principal components analysis (Vol. 69). Sage.
Gastanaga, V. M., Nugent, J. B., & Pashamova, B. (1998). Host country reforms and FDI inflows: How much difference do they make?. World development, 26(7), 1299-1314.
Gobinda Goswami, G. and S. Haider (2014).Does political risk deter FDI inflow? An analytical approach using panel data and factor analysis. Journal of Economic Studies 41(2): 233-252.
Goldberg, L. S., & Klein, M. W. (1998). Foreign direct investment, trade and real exchange rate linkages in Southeast Asia and Latin America. In R. Glick (Ed.), Managing capital flows and exchange rates: Perspectives from the pacific basin (pp. 73–100). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Goodman, A. E. (1993).Vietnams Post-Cold War Diplomacy and the US Response. Asian Survey, 33(8), 832-847.
Goswami, G. G., & Haider, S. (2014).Does political risk deter FDI inflow? An analytical approach using panel data and factor analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 41(2), 233-252.
Hanh, P. T. H. (2020).Determinants of FDI into China and Vietnam: A comparative study. Korea and the World Economy, 21(1), 35-73.
Harms, P., & Ursprung, H. (2002).Do Civil and Political Repression Really Boost Foreign Direct Investments? Economic Enquiry, 40(4), 651-663. https://doi.org/10.1093/ei/40.4.651
Hattari, R., & Rajan, R. S. (2009).Understanding bilateral FDI flows in developing Asia. Asian‐Pacific Economic Literature, 23(2), 73-93.
Hayakawa, K., Kimura, F., & Lee, H-H. (2012).How Does Country Risk Matter for Foreign Direct Investment? ERIA discussion paper No. 281. https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.12002
Hermes, N., & Lensink, R. (2003).Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth. The journal of development studies, 40(1), 142-163.
Hoang, H.H. (2012).Foreign direct investment in Southeast Asia determinants and spatial distribution. DEPOCEN Working Paper Series No. 2012/30.
Hoang, H.H. and Goujon, M. (2014).Determinants of foreign direct investment in vietnamese provinces: a spatial econometric analysis Post-Communist Economies, Vol. 26 No. 1, pp. 103-121.
Hoang, T., Thi, V., & Minh, H. (2020).The impact of exchange rate on inflation and economic growth in Vietnam. Management Science Letters, 10(5), 1051-1060.
Howell, L. D. (2001).The Handbook of Country and Political Risk Analysis (3rd ed.). The PRS Group: East Syracuse, NY.
Hyndman, R. J., & Koehler, A. B. (2006). Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International journal of forecasting, 22(4), 679-688.
Jean Lee, S. K. (1992).Quantitative versus qualitative research methods—Two approaches to organisation studies. Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 9, 87-94.
Jong, P. D., & Chu‐Chun‐Lin, S. (1994).Stationary and non‐stationary state space models. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 15(2), 151-166.
Khan, M. M., & Akbar, M. I. (2013).The impact of political risk on foreign direct investment.
Kim, H. (2010), Political stability and foreign direct investment, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 2 No. 3, p. 5971.
Kinney Jr, W. R. (1978).ARIMA and regression in analytical review: An empirical test. Accounting Review, 48-60.
Kirui, E., Wawire, N. H., & Onono, P. A. (2014). Macroeconomic variables, volatility and stock market returns: a case of Nairobi securities exchange, Kenya.
Kurita, T. (2019).Principal component analysis (PCA). Computer Vision: A Reference Guide, 1-4.
Lansangan, J. R. G., & Barrios, E. B. (2009).Principal components analysis of nonstationary time series data. Statistics and Computing, 19, 173-187.
Levchenko, A. A., & Mauro, P. (2007).Do some forms of financial flows help protect against “sudden stops”?. The World Bank Economic Review, 21(3), 389-411.
Lipworth, G., & Spitäller, E. (1993).Viet Nam-Reform and Stabilization, 1986-92.
Ljung, G. M., & Box, G. E. (1978).On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika, 65(2), 297-303.
Mansournia, M. A., Nazemipour, M., Naimi, A. I., Collins, G. S., & Campbell, M. J. (2021). Reflection on modern methods: demystifying robust standard errors for epidemiologists. International Journal of Epidemiology, 50(1), 346-351.
Marsh, S. P., & MacAulay, T. G. (2002).Land reform and the development of commercial agriculture in Vietnam: policy and issues. Australasian Agribusiness Review, 10, 1-19.
Mason, R. L., & Vracheva, V. (2017).The impact of inflation targeting on attracting foreign direct investment. Journal of Applied Business and Economics, 19(4), 79-94.
Moosa, I.A. (2002).Foreign Direct Investment: Theory, Evidence and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan
Nguyễn, H. V., & Phan, T. T. (2023).Impact of economic growth, international trade, and FDI on sustainable development in developing countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-27.
Nguyen, T. V. H., & Cao, T. H. V. (2015).The impact of institutional quality on foreign direct investment (FDI).inflows to Vietnam. EADN Working Pap, 86, 28.
Nupehewa, S., Liyanage, S., Polkotuwa, D., Thiyagarajah, M., Jayathilaka, R., & Lokeshwara, A. (2022).More than just investment: Causality analysis between foreign direct investment and economic growth. Plos one, 17(11), e0276621.
Ochieng, P. A. (2009).An analysis of the strengths and limitation of qualitative and quantitative research paradigms. Problems of Education in the 21st Century, 13, 13.
Rafat, M., & Farahani, M. (2019).The country risks and foreign direct investment (FDI). Iranian Economic Review, 23(1), 235-260.
Raff, H. (2004).Preferential trade agreements and tax competition for foreign direct investment. Journal of Public Economics, 88(12), 2745–2763.
Rios‐Morales, R., & Brennan, L. (2010).The emergence of Chinese investment in Europe. EuroMed Journal of Business, 5(2), 215-231.
Sahoo, P. (2006), Foreign direct investment in south Asia: policy, trends, impact and determinants, ADB Institute Discussion paper No. 56, Asian Development Bank Institute, available at: www. econstor.eu/handle/10419/53445
Saldaña, J. (2003). Longitudinal qualitative research: Analyzing change through time. Rowman Altamira.
Schutt, R. K. (2019). Quantitative methods. The Wiley Blackwell Companion to Sociology, 39-56.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2019). World Investment Report 2019. United Nations.
Vo.V.Dut, & Nguyen.T.P.N. (2015). Ảnh hưởng của tham nhũng đến dòng vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài vào các quốc gia Châu Á. Tạp Chí Khoa Học Đại Học Mở Thành Phố Hồ Chí Minh-Kinh Tế Và Quản Trị Kinh Doanh, 10(3), 162-172.
Wei, Y., Siler, P., Wang, C., & Liu, X.. (2000).Productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment: Evidence from UK industry level panel data. Journal of International Business Studies, 31, 407-425.
Wisniewski, T. P., & Pathan, S. K. (2014).Political environment and foreign direct investment: Evidence from OECD countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 36, 13-23.